Trading Systems & Methods
Автор(ы): | Kaufman
06.10.2007
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Описание: | Замечательно проницательная книга о входах и выходах в рынок фьючерса. В неподражаемом стиле автор грузит как начинающих, так и продвинутых трейдеров на предмет как и из каких ингридиентов создать собственную торговую систему. Многие находят ее превосходным источником для анализа, оценки и прогноза ценовых движений. |
Оглавление: |
Обложка книги.
1. INTRODUCTION [1]Technical versus Fundamental [1] Professional and Amateur [2] Random Walk [3] Background Material [4] Research Skills [5] Objectives of This Book [6] Profile of a Trading System [6] A Word on Notation Used in This Book [8] 2. BASIC CONCEPTS [9] About Data and Averaging [9] On the Average [11] Distribution [13] Dispersion andSkewness [16] Standardizing Returns and Risk [20] The Index [22] Probability [23] Supply and Demand [29] 3. REGRESSION ANALYSIS [30] Characteristics of the Price Data [30] Linear Regression [38] Method of Least Squares [39] Linear Correlstion [42] Nonlinear Approximstions for Two Variables [45] Second-Order Least Squares [46] Evalustion of 2-Variable Techniques [48] Multivariate Approximations [51] ARIMA [55] Linear Regression Model [60] 4. TREND CALCULATIONS [62] Forecasting and Following [62] Least-Squares Model [63] The Moving Average [65] Geometric Moving Averages [68] Drop-Off Effect [71] Exponential Smoothing [75] Relating Exponential Smoothing and Standard Moving Averages [81] 5. TREND SYSTEMS [89] Basic Buy and Sell Signals [89] Bands and Channels [90] Applicstions of Single Trends [95] Comparison of Major Trend Systems [100] Techniques Using Two Trendlines [116] Comprehensive Studies [120] Selecting the Right Moving Average [120] Moving Average Sequences: Signal Progression [122] Living with a Trend-Following Philosophy [123] 6. MOMENTUM AND OSCILLATORS [126] Momentum [126] Oscillators [133] Double-Smoothed Momentum [144] Adding Volume to Momentum [144] Velocity and Acceleration [149] Other Rate-of-Change Indicators [152] Momentum Divergence [154] Momentum Smoothing [155] Some Final Comments on Momentum [158] 7. SEASONALITY [160] A Consistent Factor [160] The Seasonal Pattern [161] Popular Methods for Calculating Seasonally [161] Weather Sensitivity [164] Seasonal Filters [166] Common Sense and Seasonally [188] 8. CYCLE ANALYSIS [189] Cycle Basics [189] Uncovering the Cycle [193] Maximum Entropy [208] Cycle Channel Index [209] Phasing [210] 9. CHARTING [213] Finding Consistent Patterns [214] Interpreting the Bar Chart [215] Chart Formstions [217] Basic Trading Rules [218] Tops and Bottoms [221] Gaps [225] Key Reversal Days [226] Episodic Patterns [227] Price Objectives for Bar Charting [228] Candlestick Charts [232] Using the Bar Chart [234] 10. VOLUME, OPEN INTEREST, AND BREADTH [237] Contract Volume versus Total Volume [237] Varistions from the Normal Patterns [238] Standard Interpretation [239] Volume Indicators [240] Interpreting Volume Systemstically [249] An Integrated Probability Model [250] Intraday Volume Patterns [251] Filtering Low Volume [253] Market Facilitation Index [254] Sources of Informstion [255] 11. POINT-AND-FIGURE CHARTING [256] Plotting Prices Using the Point-and-Figure Method [257] Chart Formstions [259] Point-and-Figure Box Size [261] The Problem of Risk [263] Trading Techniques [264] Price Objectives [268] A Study in Point-and-Figure Optimization [272] 12. CHARTING SYSTEMS [281] Swing Trading [281] William Dunnigan and the Thrust Method [290] Nofri's Congestion-Pbase System [292] Outside Days with an Outside Close [293] Action and Reaction [294] Channel Breakout [298] Moving Channels [300] Combining Techniques [300] Complex Patterns [302] 13. SPREADS AND ARBITRAGE [305] Spread and Arbitrage Relationships [307] Arbitrage [307] Changing Spread Relationships [316] Carrying Charges [320] Technical Analysis of Spreads [322] Volatility and Spread Ratios [329] Leverage in Spreads [332] 14. BEHAVIORAL TECHNIQUES [334] Measuring the News [334] Event Trading [338] Commitment of Traders Report [344] Opinion and Contrary Opinion [346] Fibonacci and Human Bebavior [350] Elliott's Wave Principle [353] Constructions Using the Fibonacci Ratio [361] Fischer's Golden Section Compass System [363] W. D. Gann-Time and Space [366] Financial Astrology [371] 15. PATTERN RECOGNITION [382] Projecting Daily Highs and Lows [383] Time of Day [384] Opening Gaps and Intraday Patterns [394] Three Studies in Market Movement-Weekday, Weekend, and Reversal Patterns [400] Computer-Based Pattern Recognition [416] Artificial Intelligence Methods [417] 16. DAY TRADING [419] Impact of Transaction Costs [419] Applicability of Trading Techniques [423] Market Patterns [428] 17. ADAPTIVE TECHNIQUES [436] Adaptive Trend Calculations [436] Adaptive Momentum Calculations [444] An Adaptive Process [446] Considering Adaptive Methods [447] 18. PRICE DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS [449] Using the Standard Deviation [449] Use of Price Distributions and Patterns to Anticipate Moves [451] Distribution of Prices [453] Steidimayer-s Market Profile [458] 19. MULTIPLE TIME FRAMES [465] Tuning Two Time Frames to Work Together [465] Elder's Triple-Screen Trading System [466] Robert Krauszs Multiple Time Frames [468] A Comment on Multiple Time Frames [470] 20. ADVANCED TECHNIQUES [471] Measuring Volatility [471] Trade Selection [482] Price-Volume Distribution [483] Trends and Noise [484] Expert Systems [485] Fuzzy Logic [488] Fractals and Chaos [490] Neural Networks [492] Genetic Algorithms [498] Considering Genetic Algorithms, Neural Networks, and Feedback [502] 21. TESTING [503] Expectations [504] Identifying the Parameters [505] Selecting the Test Data [506] Searching for the Optimal Result [508] Visualizing and Interpreting the Results [510] Step-Forward Testing and Out-of-Sample Data [517] Changing Rules [519] Arriving at Valid Test Results [520] Point-and-Figure Testing [525] Comparing the Results of Two Systems [527] Profiting from the Worst Results [530] Retesting Procedure [531] Comprehensive Studies [533] Price Shocks [546] Anatomy of an Optimization [547] Data Mining and Overoptimization [548] Summary [554] 22. PRACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS [555] Use and Abuse of the Computer [555] Price Shocks [562] Gambling Technique-The Theory of Runs [565] Selective Trading [572] System Trade-Offs [574] Trading Limits-A Dampening Effect [579] Going to Extremes [582] Similarity of Systems [583] 23. RISK CONTROL [587] Risk Aversion [587] Liquidity [589] Cspital [590] MeasuringRisk [591] Leverage [596] Diversification [598] Individual Trade Risk [603] Ranking of Markets for Selection [609] Probability of Success and Ruin [614] Compounding a Position [617] Equity Cycles [619] Investing and Reinvesting Optimal f [623] Comparing Expected and Actual Results [626] APPENDIX 1. STATISTICAL TABLES [631] Probability Distribution Tables [631] Table of Uniform Random Numbers [633] APPENDIX 2. METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES [634] Operating Instructions [634] Computer Programs [634] Least-Squares Solution for Corn-Soybeans [640] Least-Squares Solution for Soybeans Only [645] APPENDIX 3. MATRIX SOLUTIONS TO LINEAR EQUATIONS AND MARKOV CHAINS [651] Direct Solution and Convergence Method [651] General Matrix Form [651] Direct Solution [651] Convergence Method [657] APPENDIX 4. TRIGONOMETRIC REGRESSION FOR FINDING CYCLES [659] Single-Frequency Trigonometric Regression [659] Two-Frequency Trigonometric Regression [663] APPENDIX 5. FOURIER TRANSFORMATION [669] Fast Fourier Transform Program [669] APPENDIX 6. CONSTRUCTION OF A PENTAGON [673] Construction of a Pentagon from One Fixed Diagonal [673] Construction of a Pentagon from One Side [674] BIBLIOGRAPHY [676] INDEX [687] |
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